실적 서프라이즈 추적기 계산기

이 무료 실적 서프라이즈 계산기로 EPS 상회와 하회를 추적하세요. 서프라이즈 비율, 연속 횟수, 평균 크기를 브라우저에서 계산합니다.

분기 실적

분기Estimated EPSActual EPS

결과

결과를 보려면 0이 아닌 추정치가 있는 분기를 하나 이상 추가하세요.

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$1$50

작동 방식

The Earnings Surprise Tracker compares the consensus analyst EPS estimate with the actual reported EPS for each quarter. The surprise percentage shows how much the company exceeded or fell short of expectations, a key signal for earnings momentum. Enter at least four quarters of history to see meaningful streak and average surprise trends. Consensus estimates are available from earnings calendars and broker research. Use adjusted EPS that excludes one time items when your broker quote is adjusted, or GAAP EPS consistently across all quarters if that is your source. Mixing adjusted and GAAP figures within one history distorts surprise percentages and streak counts.

Enter the estimated and actual EPS for each quarter. The tool computes the surprise percentage, categorizes the magnitude (Inline, Slight, Significant, or Massive), and tracks consecutive beat/miss streaks. The average surprise metric gives you a quick read on whether the company consistently surprises to the upside or downside. Export or copy results to compare multiple holdings in your watchlist. Sort quarters with the most recent at the top because streak logic counts backward from the latest report. After earnings season, update all rows before comparing surprise quality across your portfolio. Pair revenue surprise review manually when EPS beats on cost cuts alone.

copy results to compare multiple holdings in your watchlist. Sort quarters with the most recent at the top because streak logic counts backward from the latest report. After earnings season, update all rows before comparing surprise quality across your portfolio. Pair revenue surprise review manually when EPS beats on cost cuts alone.

입력값이 변경될 때마다 실적 서프라이즈 추적기을(를) 사용하세요: 시장 변동, 새로운 기여금 또는 수정된 개인 가정 후. 소프트웨어 설치 없이 빠른 재실행을 위해 페이지를 북마크하세요.

단계별 안내

실적 서프라이즈 추적기을(를) 열고 현재 입력값을 입력하세요.
계산된 출력과 요약 테이블을 검토하세요.
가정을 조정하고 시나리오를 나란히 비교하세요.

실전 예제

The Earnings Surprise Tracker compares the consensus analyst EPS estimate with the actual reported EPS for each quarter. Enter the sample inputs described in How it works to reproduce the scenario step by step.

한 번에 하나의 입력을 조정하여 민감도를 확인하세요. 실적 서프라이즈 추적기은(는) 즉시 업데이트되므로 행동하기 전에 낙관적 및 보수적 가정을 스트레스 테스트할 수 있습니다.

이 계산기를 사용할 때

Reach for Earnings Surprise Tracker when track eps beats and misses quarter by quarter. calculate surprise percentages, streak counts, and average surprise magnitude: all in your browser.. It suits quick what if analysis before trades, allocation changes, or plan updates.

결정이 세금, 유동성 또는 하나의 공식이 포착하는 것 이상의 다년 전망을 포괄할 때 관련 도구와 함께 사용하세요.

흔한 실수

입력 단위나 오래된 시장 가격을 확인하지 않고 출력을 복사하는 것은 실적 서프라이즈 추적기에서 흔한 오류입니다. 행동하기 전에 티커, 백분율 및 날짜를 확인하세요.

단일 기준 시나리오만 실행하면 꼬리 위험을 무시합니다. 보수적 입력으로 스트레스 테스트하고 결정이 중요할 때 아래 나열된 관련 도구와 비교하세요.

공식

surprise% = (actual_eps − estimated_eps) / |estimated_eps| × 100

if |surprise%| ≤ 2: category = Inline

elif |surprise%| ≤ 10: category = Slight Surprise

elif |surprise%| ≤ 25: category = Significant Surprise

else: category = Massive Surprise

beat_streak = consecutive quarters where actual > estimated

miss_streak = consecutive quarters where actual < estimated

avg_surprise = Σ(surprise%) / n

제한 사항 및 가정

Surprise percentage uses |estimated EPS| as denominator to handle negative estimates. Streaks count from most recent quarter backward. Does not adjust for stock splits or one time charges unless you normalize EPS inputs manually. Inline threshold is ±2%. Classification bands at 10% and 25% follow common sell side research conventions. Earnings Surprise Tracker does not replace personalized advice. Fees, slippage, account specific rules, and behavioral constraints may change real world outcomes.

주요 용어

What is an earnings surprise: An earnings surprise occurs when a company reports EPS that differs from the consensus analyst estimate.
How is the surprise percentage calculated: Surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100.
모델 가정: Inline (±2%): effectively met expectations.

대안 비교

Pair with Stock Chart to visualize earnings dates on the price timeline. Use those calculators when earnings surprise tracker alone does not capture the full decision.

portfolios.tools의 내부 링크는 계산기 체인을 도와줍니다: 먼저 실적 서프라이즈 추적기을(를) 실행한 다음, 아래 관련 섹션의 전문 도구로 엣지 케이스를 검증하세요.

FAQ

What is an earnings surprise?

An earnings surprise occurs when a company reports EPS that differs from the consensus analyst estimate. A positive surprise (beat) means actual EPS exceeded estimates; a negative surprise (miss) means actual EPS fell below estimates. Beats often trigger short term price jumps while misses can cause sharp selloffs. The magnitude of surprise matters more than direction alone for market reaction. Guidance updates during the call can amplify or reverse the initial price move even when EPS beats. Pre announce warnings often reduce surprise magnitude by lowering consensus before the official print.

How is the surprise percentage calculated?

Surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100. The absolute value of the estimate is used as the denominator to handle cases where estimated EPS is negative (expected losses). A company expected to lose 0.50 but reporting a 0.10 loss is a positive surprise of 80%. Small denominator values amplify surprise percentages. Near zero estimates produce extreme percentages that look massive on classification even when the dollar miss is trivial. Cap mental interpretation when |estimate| is below a few cents.

What do the surprise categories mean?

Inline (±2%): effectively met expectations. Slight Surprise (±2 to 10%): modest beat or miss. Significant Surprise (±10 to 25%): notable deviation. Massive Surprise (above ±25%): major earnings shock. Massive beats on revenue and guidance upgrades often produce larger price moves than inline EPS beats with weak forward guidance. Sector context matters: high growth tech names often need massive beats to avoid selloffs while mature staples move on slight surprises.

How are beat/miss streaks counted?

Streaks count consecutive quarters from the most recent going backward. If the latest quarter was a beat, the beat streak counts how many consecutive quarters the company has beaten estimates. The streak resets when there is a miss or inline result. A 4 quarter beat streak suggests consistent operational outperformance but raises the bar for the next quarter. Miss streaks after long beat runs sometimes trigger larger drawdowns because expectations reset violently. Document whether beats came from revenue growth or margin expansion for quality assessment.

Why track earnings surprises?

Earnings surprise trends are a key factor in momentum investing. Companies that consistently beat estimates often see positive price reactions through post earnings announcement drift. Tracking this history helps investors anticipate market reactions. Combine surprise history with valuation metrics to avoid overpaying for companies priced for perfection. Average surprise near zero with low volatility suggests predictable reporting. Persistent negative average surprise may signal structural estimate optimism from bullish analysts covering the name.

이 실적 서프라이즈 추적기 계산기를 휴대폰이나 태블릿에서 어떻게 사용하나요?

예. 이 도구는 데스크톱과 동일한 공식으로 모바일 브라우저에서 완전히 실행됩니다. 선택적 localStorage는 브라우저 설정에서 활성화된 경우 기기에 입력값을 기억할 수 있습니다.

실적 서프라이즈 추적기을(를) 사용할 때 내 데이터는 어디에 저장되나요?

당사 서버 어디에도 없습니다. 계산은 브라우저에서 로컬로 실행됩니다. 선택적 localStorage는 기기에서만 양식 필드를 저장하며 네트워크를 통해 포트폴리오 번호를 전송하지 않습니다.

세금 또는 법적 결정에 실적 서프라이즈 추적기에 의존해야 하나요?

아니요. 이 도구는 교육용 수학만 제공합니다. 세법, 계좌 규칙 및 개인 상황은 다양합니다. 중대한 결과를 초래하는 거래 전에 자격을 갖춘 세무 또는 법률 전문가와 상담하세요.